Microsoft’s push to advance the PC market through artificial intelligence and Windows 11 could unintentionally lead to an increase in e-waste.
“Windows 11 itself doesn’t directly cause e-waste,” said Kieren Jessop, an analyst at Canalys, a global market research firm. “However, its hardware requirements can indirectly contribute to e-waste.” He explained that a significant portion of the current Windows install base cannot upgrade to Windows 11 due to the need for the TPM 2.0 chip, which is integral for the OS’s security features.
Canalys estimates that around 20% of the global Windows install base, which includes over 200 million devices, is unable to meet the hardware requirements for Windows 11.
While these devices will continue to run Windows 10 until support ends in October 2025, Jessop pointed out that they do not become immediately obsolete. Consumers may not be highly concerned about using an unsupported version of Windows. However, businesses with older PCs are likely to replace their devices as Windows 10 reaches its end of support, which could lead to increased electronic waste.
240 Million PCs at Risk of Becoming E-Waste
In December, analysts Kieren Jessop and Ben Caddy released a report estimating that around 20% of Windows 10 devices—approximately 240 million PCs—could become e-waste by the time Microsoft ends support for Windows 10.
While many of these PCs could be recycled if they are still in good condition, the report noted that their inability to run the latest version of Windows significantly diminishes their resale and refurbishment value.
Even though these PCs will remain functional for years, there will be limited demand for devices not supported by Microsoft. Businesses, in particular, may be compelled to replace their older machines due to the absence of essential security updates after Windows 10 support ends.
“Organizations with fleets of Windows 10 PCs that are still perfectly usable might be forced to retire them early once Microsoft stops providing support, especially security updates,” Caddy told TechNewsWorld.
Microsoft will offer an Extended Security Updates (ESU) program for Windows 10 for three years after the end-of-service date, but the cost may discourage its adoption. The ESU program starts at $61 per device for the first year, rising to $122 for the second year, and $244 for the third year.
Impact on Landfills
“Companies prefer to have their devices equipped with the latest security updates and features, so even if older hardware still functions, it’s often deemed obsolete,” said Jacob Kalvo, co-founder and CEO of Live Proxies.
Kalvo noted that Windows 11’s higher hardware requirements compared to Windows 10 could lead many otherwise functional PCs to be discarded. “PCs that can’t meet Windows 11 specifications but can handle everyday applications are at risk of being thrown away,” he said.
The end of Windows 10 support will contribute to e-waste but will also drive new PC sales. “Due to high demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, many businesses’ PC fleets are due for an upgrade,” Jessop explained. A Canalys survey revealed that 73% of channel partners expect Windows 10’s end-of-support to influence their customers’ refresh plans within the next year.
Additionally, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is making older hardware less suitable. “As AI-driven applications become more common, older PCs will struggle to run them efficiently,” Kalvo said. Jessop added that on-device AI inferencing is becoming more advantageous, with cost and efficiency benefits compared to cloud-based AI.
Corporate Strategies and Lifespan
Despite these challenges, Russ Ernst, CTO of Blancco Technology Group, noted that many companies are trying to extend the life of their hardware. “There’s a push to keep machines for longer periods, moving away from a strict three-year lifecycle to potentially four or five years, or even seven years in some cases,” he said.
One strategy to extend hardware life is “cascading,” where devices are repurposed within a company according to their computing needs. “You can’t always move a machine from a high-demand department like engineering to a lower-demand one like marketing, but you can do the reverse,” Ernst explained.
Sustainability Considerations
The potential e-waste from Windows 10’s end-of-support underscores the need for both device and OS vendors to prioritize product longevity. The Canalys report emphasized the importance of durability, repairability, and recyclability in device design, as well as the need for long-term software support.
“Reducing e-waste is a shared responsibility among manufacturers, consumers, and policymakers,” Jessop said. “Vendors should design products to last, offer repair services, and provide extended software updates. Consumers should make informed purchasing decisions and dispose of devices properly.”
Caddy noted that device lifespan is influenced by both consumer purchasing cycles and IT procurement cycles. “PC vendors must ensure devices are durable and repairable,” he said. “However, the actions of OS vendors like Microsoft and Apple also significantly impact a device’s lifespan, as the end of OS support can force the premature retirement of otherwise functional devices due to security concerns.”